Manifestation, Snow White and the secret to success (Part 2)

The dark side of the success industry and why you should never trust testimonials

I am gullible. You are gullible. We’re all gullible. It is a fact of life. We are humans. We fall for nonsense sometimes. And manifestation is mostly nonsense (if you missed Part 1 of this series, find out why here). We want to believe something. We want to be part of the club who knows the secret. Who has insights that no one else has. We want to feel special. 

And the success industry is a massive business. The first famous law of attraction book “The Secret” (2006) by Rhonda Byrnes has sold more than 35 million times. Tickets to Tony Robbins’ program “Unleash The Power Within” in Europe cost between ca. 1,050 and 5,200 EUR as of June 2024. Roxie Nafousi, the new “queen of manifesting” (sorry, Gabby!), has 314,000 followers on Instagram and allegedly sold more than 200,000 copies of her book “Manifest - 7 Steps To Living Your Best Life” in the UK alone. She hosts live events in 2024 with ticket prices ranging from 42  - 109 GBP and optional VIP access to her. The hashtag #manifestation gets 11.4 million results on Instagram as of June 2024 and according to the study I’ll talk about in a minute, videos featuring the tag “manifestation” have been viewed 34.6 billion times as of May 2023. I am not interested in picking on any specific person, I am trying to explain the mechanisms. These people come and go, but scams will always work the same way, they will only have a different face. . 

Why are we giving them so much money?

There is an interesting and very recent research paper (that summarizes three studies) that looks into commonalities of people who believe in manifestation and the promises of the success industry. They found that people who are believers in these strategies have certain traits in common. They tend to be either more spiritual or religious, more prone to risky investments, have higher hopes for future success and perceive themselves as more successful - while there was no objective evidence for it. 

There were no significant differences between men and women and age or academic education wasn’t a big differentiator either. Which surprised me, to be honest. But it is probably because I see the manifestation world mostly through the lens of my Instagram algorithm which is, of course, biased to what Instagram thinks I, as a female, am interested in. Quite concerning thought that education does not save you from being gullible, too. But that only goes to show how powerful the psyche is, I guess. Kinda sucks though. 

However, it is absolutely great to see that there is comprehensive research and they even developed a “Manifestation Scale” (p.5 ff. of the study) to ensure standardization. This is only the beginning and I hope to see more studies like that. 

Snow White’s dark shadow 

And there is indeed a lot more to look at. I find that apart from what the study found, there is one interesting aspect that makes people gullible that is not talked about as much. And it is masterfully told in the fairytale “Snow White”. You all know the fairy tale. Where the Evil Queen has this beautiful stepdaughter who she envies for her youth and beauty. And when her magic mirror answers her question “Mirror mirror on the wall, who is the fairest one of all?” with “Snow White” for the first time, she turns against the little girl. 

The Evil Queen plans to have her killed by a huntsman in the forest and have him bring back her heart as proof. That plan does not work out however, because the huntsman has a good heart and spares Snow White. He brings back the heart of a boar which is good enough to convince the Evil Queen of her stepdaughter’s death. Snow White finds refuge at a tiny cottage with the seven dwarfs deep in the forest. The Evil Queen does not find out until a few years later when she asks her mirror again “Mirror mirror on the wall, who is the fairest one of all?”. Since Snow White was still alive and had grown into a beautiful young woman and the mirror would only ever tell the truth, the answer was “Snow White”. 

So the Evil Queen finds out where she is and goes out into the forest to find and kill her. The dwarfs had warned Snow White to not open the door to strangers while she is alone. The innocence of beautiful Snow White however wouldn’t let her fathom that her stepmother would come and try to kill her again. So she opens the door of the little cottage when someone knocks. Not only once, but three times. Even though the dwarfs who act as her protectors told her not to answer the door under any circumstance. But Snow White is so naive, her heart is so pure, that she doesn’t believe them. We all know what happens. Eventually, she eats the poisoned apple and seems to have died. But when the beautiful prince finds her and brings her back to his castle in her glass coffin, a miracle happens. The stuck piece of the apple comes out of her throat - she’s alive, they get married, Evil Queen dies, happy end. 

The question is, why did she open the door three times and trust an apparently complete stranger? Evil Queen was in disguise, of course. She made sure Snow White wouldn’t recognize her. And there is an explanation that I found quite interesting. It  builds on Carl Gustav Jung’s Analytical Psychology and his theory of “Shadow Work”. He was a famous Swiss psychiatrist and therapist, first a student of and collaborator Sigmund Freud and then went on to shape his own path with his own, now famous, comprehensive system of Analytical Psychology. 

So let’s put Snow White on the couch for a moment. According to Jung’s theory (the case of Snow White is analyzed in this Podcast “This Jungian Life” by three Jungian analysts) of the shadow, she hasn’t had the chance to fully discover the shadow side of herself yet. She is not ready to realize that other people are cunning and sometimes truly hateful and will relentlessly take advantage of her innocence. She is young, naive and hasn’t discovered her own “evil” side, a side that we all have. It’s the so-called shadow that we often like to deny and suppress. 

And this is something I see all the time in the wellness industry. Its most dangerous form is the so-called spiritual bypassing - what the “good vibes only” manifestation people preach and practice. Because if you think bad thoughts, you will manifest them, too. So, especially in “law of attraction world”, that is very much discouraged. 

Self-proclaimed gurus are seen as pure-hearted and good. I have yet to see one where that’s actually true. If you really want a glimpse into the darkest dark, I highly recommend watching “Bikram: Yogi, guru, predator” on Netflix or google the “Yogi Bhajan” scandal. These guys are on a different level, obviously. It is one thing to be a scammer and “just” take people’s money, a whole other thing to commit disgusting violent crimes like many of these gurus in the Yoga world. Same type of shameless person though, relentlessly taking advantage of other people, and applying the same psychological tactics. 

All these people are examples of the archetypal Evil Queen. Somewhat disturbed personalities with narcissistic tendencies, a deep lack of empathy or any kind of moral compass. And they are out there, in the real world, not just in fairytales. 

It is therefore necessary to become aware of and acknowledge your own “dark side”, or, as Jung says in his Collective Works “the thing a person has no wish to be”. It is necessary and healthy to acknowledge that you - like me, like everyone - are able to willfully hurt other people, that you can be mean, that you could take advantage of other people. It is necessary to find this out about yourself in order to develop a well-rounded personality. Acknowledging this side doesn’t mean we have to act on it. 

It doesn’t make you a “bad person”. It makes you a human. And it prepares you for reality. For people who have very different values, for people who don’t find it wrong to make money with - say - snake oil or manifestation nonsense. For people who give you a free poisoned apple. They do exist and they will take advantage of you if you let them. With no shame. 

Like Snow White, I often see people in this industry who either haven’t had tough life experiences with other people, tend to compartmentalize that belief or outright refuse to believe that there is evil (like the “good vibes people”). Or the ones - and this is the most tragic case - who are going through tough times, drowning in despair and turning to the wellness world with its claim to be a “safe space” for “healing” and letting down their guard. Desperate to believe anything that gives them a spark of hope. They are the perfect prey for their calculated game. 

I get it. It is difficult to believe that people in the wellness world will take advantage of your despair. In an industry where everyone is so nice, pretty and rich. Where everyone wants you to succeed and thrive, just like they did. Right? When you hit rock bottom, it is hard to think clearly. When you are desperate and just try to survive, it is hard to say no to something that sounds too good to be true. And it is indeed hard to believe that all these nice, pretty and positive vibe people are just really good at selling their nonsense. And run massive businesses off of their nonsense methods.

Yeah, I know. It’s all pretty disappointing. But we should never ever stop thinking and questioning. Trust is fantastic. You know what’s even better? Proof. Evidence. Verification. And by proof I mean hard reality proof, not “social proof”. If somebody teaches you how to do a handstand with a special method and you practice and after a few weeks of practice, you are able to do a handstand in the middle of the room, that is tangible proof. Impossible to fake. Either you can do it or not. And that’s all we want. Facts and numbers. No magic.

But it works for so many people! What’s wrong with me?

But what if it seems to work for so many people? Instagram and TikTok are full of videos about manifestation. There must be something to it. Let’s talk a bit about social proof and network effects, because the system of social proof works hand-in-hand with the so-called network effect. The network effect is the concept that the value of a product or service increases with the number of users. Most famous examples are social media networks like Instagram and e-commerce platforms like Amazon. 

The laws of the network effect dictate that as more people use a product or service, its value increases, as we just learned. This ultimately leads to a dominant winner. Take Google's search algorithm. Google must prioritize one result. Because there can only ever be one at the top. There has to be one at the top. The network effect ensures that one individual or company inevitably bubbles up to the top, benefiting disproportionately from the network's cumulative value. It’s a winner-takes-all dynamic.  

Now, the network effect is not as strong for people, influencers or brands that operate within social networks as they are for the networks themselves, but some aspects still apply. The cost of switching from following one account to another is not as high as switching completely from Instagram to TikTok, for example. On the contrary, it is technically really easy to follow multiple accounts. The price you pay is time. Social networks however do favor accounts with more followers and accounts with more engagement. Why? Because these accounts reinforce the market dominance of the social network itself. 

When you see that the parking lot of a restaurant is packed with cars, we all assume their food must be good. Same thing in the social media world. In the realm of manifestation methods, the network effect plays out as more people buy into the idea, creating a self-reinforcing cycle. When many people believe in something, it gains legitimacy - think of it as “so many people can’t be wrong.” This phenomenon can especially be observed in social media bubbles, where repeated ideas gain traction and seem more credible. People who spread their ideas successfully will gain more followers which leads to a greater audience which leads to greater reach etc. 

More people see it, believe in it, fall prey to the psychological traps and then write an enthusiastic testimonial. Which leads to more people believing in it. And social networks perfected their algorithms to maximize the network effect and show people exactly what they like. Why? Because that’s how they make money. 

Without a social network app, 1 person can only spread an idea to maybe their immediate 10 friends. But given a platform, the network of these 10 friends can spread it to 100 people. And these 100 people can each spread it to 100 people. And - boom - that’s a network of 10,000 people, since they are all connected, hence network effect. The more people you have in the network, the more ideas can be spread, exponentially. The more ideas can spread, the more time people spend on the apps. The more time people spend on the apps, the more ad revenue it brings to the platform. That’s why social media networks are the greatest platform to spread these ideas. That’s why you find them all on Instagram and TikTok etc. It’s not rocket science. It is simply the network effect. 

There are two issues with that. The first is that success in these networks is often mistaken as a clear path to success others can follow. And there are tons of people out there selling you their “secret to success on social media”. However, this overlooks the reality that the ascent to the top is shaped by a confluence of rules, timing, and luck rather than a replicable path. Discovering the rules - such as the need for critical mass and user engagement - does not equate to a guaranteed journey to success. It is the rules, not the path. 

Now that we got the mechanisms of the network effect down, we can understand the second issue. What does this mean for you as the consumer? It’s pretty simple. Only because someone has a large following does not mean that what they say is right. Or good. Or makes sense. It only tells you that a lot of people like it. And that they made it to the top. Because of the network effect and because Instagram and TikTok like them. Because they make their network better and bigger. Which helps the network itself make it to the top of social networks. 

As we saw earlier, a few people will inevitably bubble up to the top in their niche. And it is often the prettiest ones and the ones with the most compelling teachings that create the highest engagement and largest audience. And this will be rewarded by pushing them to the top. This is common sense, too.

People want to look at beautiful people, people are emotional. When they’re emotional, they spend more time, they are more likely to click the “like” button and they generally want to feel good. They don’t turn to social media to think critically, be confronted or have their beliefs questioned. All social networks and the entire ad industry leverage that. When you scroll through Instagram, you literally scroll through ads. No surprise. Hopefully.

Another lever that gets more effective with a growing audience size is “social proof”. They use the people in their audience to grow their network via testimonials who tell everyone else how great they are. 

Here’s a crazy thought. What if social proof in the success industry only proves how successful people were in selling their nonsense to gullible people? What if Gabby Bernstein’s 1.4 Million followers only tell you how many gullible people she convinced to fall for her nonsense? Or the 15.5 Million followers of Jay Shetty - who has fabricated his entire story, has never actually been a monk - and nobody seems to care (his famous book is “Think like a monk” on insights he claimed to have received during his three years as a monk in India - which never happened.. I’ll talk about him and his scam in Part 3). 

It is okay, necessary and good to trust people. Nobody can be an expert in everything. But be careful who you trust. And be especially careful with testimonials. If we hear something over and over again, we tend to believe it’s true. This effect is called the illusory truth effect and is widely used for marketing - and propaganda. 

And testimonials almost never show the negative side. Here’s why. They either get censored or the incentives for positive feedback (affiliate programs!) are so high that the positive ones outnumber the negative ones by far. Or the “I show you the secret to success” programs have a so-called non-disparagement clause that doesn't legally allow you to post anything negative. Many “business success” courses have that. And this is not a secret. Marie Forleo, one of the early people in the success industry has it on her website under Terms and Conditions for her “B-School” in plain sight (it’s under “Additional Terms and Conditions”):

3) NON-DISPARAGEMENT. You agree that you will not engage in any conduct or communications with a third party, public or private, designed to disparage the Company, B-School, or Marie Forleo, including, but not limited to, any remark, comment, message, information, declaration, campaign, communication, or other statement of any kind, whether verbal, in writing, electronically transferred, or otherwise, that might reasonably be construed to be derogatory, defamatory, libelous, or slander.

Not a manifestation program, but she’s a big deal in the success industry, too. So, testimonials are highly suspicious. Don’t trust them. The whole system is rigged.

If you manifest the shit out of it and it doesn’t work for you, you might not be alone. You might just never hear from anyone else for the reasons above. It might be a good time to question whether you should keep trusting. And not do more of it, take another course and spend more money on the thing. Nothing is wrong with you. It’s just time to come to terms with reality. 

But what if the Universe has its own timing?

Here comes another tricky part of the manifestation game. I am sure you have all heard something along those lines “The Universe has its own divine timing and you might not get the thing, because something even greater is coming to you”. Pretty smart to build this into your method. It is impossible to disprove. It is really important to understand that irrefutability is an integral part of the method. It is a circular argument.

I’ll give you an example from the “Abraham-Hicks” law of attraction community itself. What if I told you that the law of attraction says that you attract disease with negative thoughts. Okay, it is known that you can actually make yourself sick by worrying etc. Psychosomatics are pretty well understood nowadays. Here comes the tragic irony. The co-founder of the law of attraction business, Jerry Hicks, died of cancer. Leukemia, to be precise. Now why could he not prevent that, you might ask? Using their own logic, he must have manifested this and wanted to die. Pretty nasty way to go, too, if you ask me. 

Well, of course, like every good ideology, they immediately twist this to fit their narrative. And here it comes. It only proves that he is human and flawed. But also that “his soul required a broader perspective, that could only be provided by non-physical form.” And he obviously chose to get cancer and die within six months after this diagnosis - after turning to chemotherapy and the whole set of Western medicine. While the rejection of the healthcare system and the trust in your own thoughts is kinda the whole basis of their method. 

But yeah. I guess, like any good cult teaches, he failed to pray or believe hard enough in the end. It is never the method, it is always your own fault. Too bad we can’t ask him anymore. Harping on someone’s death is not a kind thing to do, I know. May his soul rest in peace. However, the question must be asked why their oh so powerful method wasn’t able to cure him. I mean, seriously, if he, the master, can’t do it, why would it work for you? 

Survivorship Bias and the story of the planes

The case of Jerry Hicks is a rare incident - a case where it was impossible to hide that the method doesn’t work. Typically, we only ever hear about the success stories. Here’s another reason why. Yet another powerful psychological trap people fall into. And this one is not specific to social media. It is universal: survivorship bias. And it’s been known for centuries. In recent times, the story of the planes has become the most popular way to explain it. 

During World War II, engineers at the Statistical Research Group at Columbia University analyzing battle-damaged aircraft sought to reinforce the areas most frequently hit by enemy fire. Intuitively, they focused on the bullet-riddled wings and fuselage sections of the planes that returned from combat. However, statistician Abraham Wald pointed out a crucial oversight: the damage they observed was only on the planes that made it back safely. The planes hit in more critical areas, such as the engines or cockpit, never returned. By recognizing this survivorship bias, Wald advised reinforcing the undamaged areas, revealing how our intuition can often lead us astray by only considering visible successes and ignoring the invisible failures. 

Survivorship bias leads us to focus on successful outcomes while ignoring failures. This bias occurs when we look at the survivors or success stories and mistakenly assume that their path is typical or replicable. In the context of the success industry, we hear about the people for whom manifestation “worked,” not the countless others for whom it didn’t. This skews our perception, making success through manifestation seem more common than it is.

Successful authors and speakers in the manifestation industry have turned their stories into million-dollar businesses, not by building companies in other industries, but by selling the idea of manifestation itself. They have mastered the art of packaging and selling hope, dreams, and the promise of effortless success. Their primary success is in convincing others to buy into their system, creating a lucrative business out of speaking engagements, books, courses, and seminars.

The reality is, the only thing you can truly learn from these people is how to build a business centered around selling manifestation. Their success is not a testament to the effectiveness of manifestation in diverse fields but rather to their skill in marketing and sales within this specific niche. And capitalizing on the psychological effects and the platforms they use. This is a critical distinction that often gets lost in the glamor of their success stories.

And there you have it. That’s why these scammers are so successful in taking our money. They play the game masterfully and our psyche helps them big time to fall into the traps. That is the key to their success.

Here’s the secret to success

There is no secret. If someone is selling you the secret to success, YOU are the secret to their success. YOUR testimonial is the returned plane. YOUR money is the secret to their wealth.